Week 9 NFL picks

For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 9 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread. All the below spreads are courtesy of the consensus Week 9 odds at TheLines.com.

051020PackersLogo2020

051020PackersLogo2020

Packers (-7.5) at 49ers: The Packers faced the Niners on the road twice in 2019, and on both occasions, things didn’t work out so well:

• Week 12: They lost 37-8 in a game in which they fell short of gaining 200 total yards.

• NFC Championship Game: They lost 37-20, in a game in which that score doesn’t even begin to tell the story of how they were dominated. They gave up 285 yards and 4 TDs on the ground, and Jimmy Garoppolo only had to attempt eight passes.

So why are they 7.5-point favorites? Well, the Niners are the most injury-depleted team in the NFL. According to Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area, “The 49ers will not have anyone available who touched the ball during their 37-20 victory over the Packers that set them to the Super Bowl.” Good Lord.

Just when it was looking like we might get a decent Thursday night matchup for a change… not so much.

091020TitansLogo

091020TitansLogo

Bears at Titans (-6): The Bears have not responded well to the difficult part of their schedule. They have a good defense, but they’re average against the run. I like the Titans to eventually wear them down with Derrick Henry, while there’s little about the Bears’ offense that’s worrisome.

051020VikingsLogo2020

051020VikingsLogo2020

Lions at Vikings (-4): In my view, in the NFL expands to a 16-team playoff, the biggest beneficiaries in the NFC would be a trio of NFC North teams that aren’t good enough to make the playoffs otherwise, in the Vikings, Lions, and Bears.

051020GiantsLogo2020

051020GiantsLogo2020

Giants at Football Team (-3)The Giants have the worst record in the NFL since the start of the 2017 season. BUT…

 Since 2017 Win % 
 Giants vs. Football Team .714 
 Giants vs. everyone else 41  .163 


But also, the Giants haven’t been as bad this season as their 1-7 record would indicate. They’ve lost three games by three or fewer points, one by four, and one by eight. And hey, their one win this season was against the Football Team. They’ve at least been competitive.

To me, this game is a toss-up, and I’ll take the 3.

051020seahawksLogo2020

051020seahawksLogo2020

Seahawks (-3) at Bills: The Seahawks have won 11(!) straight 1:00 p.m. EST road games. They almost seem to revel in seeing those on the schedule. Put me down for any Seahawks 1:00 p.m. EST road games for the foreseeable future.

Ravenslogo2020

Ravenslogo2020

Ravens (-2.5) at Colts: Some weeks, the Colts look like legitimate contenders. Other weeks, they look like frauds. I have no such concerns about the consistency of the Ravens.

090920ChiefsLogo2020

090920ChiefsLogo2020

Panthers at Chiefs (-10.5): Here’s another double-digit line that’s tempting, but I’ll pass on this one.

092420Texanslogo2020

092420Texanslogo2020

Texans (-6.5) at Jaguars: I didn’t write about the Texans poaching Josh McCown from the Eagles’ “practice squad,” lol, but let’s go ahead and update McCown’s stops in the NFL (copied and pasted from Wiki):

  1. Arizona Cardinals (2002–2005)
  2. Detroit Lions (2006)
  3. Oakland Raiders (2007)
  4. Miami Dolphins (2008)
  5. Carolina Panthers (2008–2009)
  6. Hartford Colonials (2010)
  7. San Francisco 49ers (2011)
  8. Chicago Bears (2011–2013)
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2014)
  10. Cleveland Browns (2015–2016)
  11. New York Jets (2017–2018)
  12. Philadelphia Eagles (2019–2020)
  13. Houston Texans (2020–present)
051020FalconsLogo2020

051020FalconsLogo2020

Broncos at Falcons (-3.5): Who cares?

090920RaidersLogo

090920RaidersLogo

Raiders at Chargers (-1.5): The Raiders are 3-1 on the road this season, including wins over the best team in the NFL (the Chiefs) and a tough game in some bad weather last Sunday against the Browns in Cleveland. And I get a point and a half? Sold.

Steelerslogo2020

Steelerslogo2020

Steelers (-13.5) at Cowboys: I thought this line could be around 20 when it was revealed that Andy Dalton would once again be unable to play. Typically, just as a personal preference, I hate

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laying double-digit points on any NFL game, but this one comes at a value I can’t pass up.

This is also an obvious survivor pick this week if you haven’t yet used the Steelers.

101420DolphinsLogo2020

101420DolphinsLogo2020

Dolphins at Cardinals (-4): Around this time last year, the Dolphins were 0-7 with a point differential of -161, and they were clearly the worst team in the NFL. In 2020, Brian Flores is a clear NFL Coach of the Year candidate, as Miami’s defense has dominated each of their last three opponents in the Niners, Jets, and Rams. Their turnaround has been impressive. 

Meanwhile, Kyle Murray and the Cardinals have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three games, which makes it risky to pick against them, but I’m gonna ride the Dolphins wave for a while longer.

051020BuccaneersLogo2020

051020BuccaneersLogo2020

Saints at Buccaneers (-4.5): This is obviously a huge matchup in the two-team NFC South on Sunday Night Football. Personally, I find both Sean Payton and Tom Brady loathsome, which makes rooting for either team based on a pick tough to do, so I’ll just stay away.

Instead, let’s introduce a new feature! Let’s predict which player Cris Collinsworth is going to endlessly ram down our throats all night. They’ll be presented by Collinsworth as sort of an “under the radar” player, even though we all already know they’re good. I’ll go with Lavonte David.

121219Patriotslogo2

Patri*ts (-7) at Jets: According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, here are the percentage odds of the Jets winning each of their last eight games:

  1. Patri*ts at Jets: 27.2%
  2. Jets at Chargers: 28.7%
  3. Dolphins at Jets: 29.7%
  4. Raiders at Jets: 31.2%
  5. Jets at Seahawks: 10.1%
  6. Jets at Rams: 11.4%
  7. Browns at Jets: 31.2%
  8. Jets at Patri*ts: 23.1%

In my view, this matchup against the Patri*ts is the Jets’ best chance of winning a game. The Patri*ts are a bad football team now, so let’s all get used to that, but they should be able to handle the worst team in the NFL.

Survivor pick

  1. Week 1: Ravens (Result: W)
  2. Week 2: Buccaneers (Result: W)
  3. Week 3: Colts (Result: W)
  4. Week 4: Rams (Result: W)
  5. Week 5: Cowboys (Result: W)
  6. Week 6: Dolphins (Result: W)
  7. Week 7: Bills (Result: W)
  8. Week 8: Chiefs (Result: W)
  9. Week 9: Steelers

Byes: Bengals, Browns, Rams, Eagles.


• Picks against the spread: Giants (+3), Seahawks (-3), Raiders (+1.5), Steelers (-13.5), Dolphins (+4).

• Eagles picks: 4-3-1

• 2020 season, straight up: 76-40-1 (0.654)
• 2020 season, ATS: 23-17-1 (0.573)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

• Last 6 years, ATS: 226-180-10 (0.555)

This content and the links provided are sponsored by thelines.com and playpennsylvania.com, PhillyVoice.com’s Official 2020/2021 Betting Odds Partner, independently created by PhillyVoice.


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