By Sam Bush
The Phils are 28-30 with two games left.
And they can only catch the Giants and Cardinals:
The Marlins clinched second place in the NL East by beating the Yankees in extra innings. They are 30-28 and have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Phillies.
The Giants split their doubleheader, losing 6-5 on a walk-off three-run homer in Game 2. The Phillies’ best path to the playoffs is outplaying the Giants by one game since they have the tiebreaker. If the Giants go 2-0, the Phillies are done. If the Giants go 1-1, the Phillies must go 2-0. If the Giants go 0-2, the Phillies must go at least 1-1.
The Reds beat the Twins to clinch a playoff berth. They cannot be passed by the Phillies. The Phils and Reds both finished 21-19 against their divisions but the Reds have the next tiebreaker. They are 12-8 in their last 20 divisional games compared to the Phillies’ 8-12.
The Cardinals split a doubleheader with the Brewers. The Phillies can catch the Cards only if they win their final two games, St. Louis loses its final two and then loses both games of a doubleheader Monday against the Tigers. Those games against the Tigers will be played only if they matter in determining the NL playoff field.
The Phillies’ playoff chances are down to about 24%, according to Fangraphs. They were 87% on Sunday morning before a four-game losing streak began.