Eagles vs. Cowboys Predictions: Odds and Picks for Sunday Night Football


Originally posted on www.crossingbroad.com

 

 

The Eagles and Cowboys will cap off the seventh Sunday of the NFL season in primetime tonight when the two teams meet at AT&T Field with first-place on the line in the NFC East. This showdown between bitter rivals figures to be one of the most heavily bet games of the day, particularly at PA online sportsbooks, which are offering tons of great promos and bet boosts for this one. We’ll take a look at those deals, the current odds, as well as some picks and predictions in this Eagles vs. Cowboys betting preview.

If recent history serves as any indication of what’s about to go down tonight, then we should be in for quite a treat. Three of the last four meetings between the Eagles and Cowboys played in Arlington have been decided in overtime, and with the Cowboys a short favorite ahead of this one, yet another tight contest is expected by experts and oddsmakers alike.

Dallas enters having lost three straight games after beating up on the JV portion of its schedule for three weeks to open its season. The Cowboys have been plagued by injuries and missed opportunities in recent weeks, but appear to be getting healthier just in time for this pivotal showdown. The same could be said of an underachieving Eagles team that has been decimated by injuries to key players while also letting potential wins, quite literally, slip through their fingers against both Atlanta and Detroit. For as much adversity as each of these two squads have faced in the early going, the winner tonight can wash away some of the frustration and find itself atop the division standings as we near the season’s midway point.

How to Bet on Eagles vs. Cowboys

Pennsylvania

There are plenty of odds boosts and excellent promos available for this game. Before we get into those, as always, we encourage bettors to shop around and take advantage of the market’s best deals.

We strongly recommend FOX Bet PA because of its offer on the Eagles at +7 (+100) on tonight’s game, plus its $20 sign-up bonus and $100 deposit match that you can grab right here .

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook PA, they continue to run a $500 risk-free bet offer for new users and a Close Loss Insurance of up to $50 on all moneyline wagers that lose by six points or less. That could come in handy tonight.

New Jersey

For those of you in the state of New Jersey, check our comprehensive NJ online sports betting page that is stocked with sportsbook reviews, welcome offers, and sign-up bonuses. Of course, we also recommend the same FOX Bet offer on the Eagles in NJ, which you can sign up for here  .

Indiana

The best wagering option for Indiana online sports betting is DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana, which is offering a generous $200 first-bet match available to new users right here .

How to Watch Eagles vs. Cowboys

  • Date: Sunday, October 20
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
  • Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
  • Network: NBC
  • Announcers: Al Michaels (play-by-play), Cris Collinsworth (color), Michele Tafoya (sideline)
  • Radio: 94 WIP (Philadelphia), 105.3 The Fan (Dallas/Fort Worth)

Eagles vs. Cowboys Weather

It’s always a good idea to check the weather forecast before locking in a bet, but AT&T Stadium isn’t susceptible to poor weather conditions with its retractable roof.

No official word on whether or not the roof will be open for tonight’s game. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be right around 80 degrees at kickoff, but there some potential thunderstorms in the forecast. Either way, the weather shouldn’t impact gameplay.

Eagles vs. Cowboys History

The Cowboys hold a 68-52 advantage in the all-time series, but the Eagles have a 21-17 the edge since the turn of the century.

Quite a few memories have been made in that time by the Eagles. Some good:

And some not so good:

Anyway, the Cowboys have a slight 10-8 edge since Jason Garrett took over the head job midway through the 2010 season, but the Eagles are 6-3 straight up in nine head-to-head meetings on the road. The Eagles have outscored Dallas in those nine games by a 256-198 margin, an average of 6.44 points per game.

One cause for concern for those backing the Eagles is that Philadelphia is only 4-11 straight up against Dallas as an underdog dating back to the 2003 season and only 1-6 straight up as an underdog since Jason Garrett took over.

Still, Dallas has never won or covered in back-to-back seasons at home against the Eagles since Garrett was named head coach, something they will need to do for the first time if they plan to take over sole possession of first-place in the NFC East tonight.

As for the two quarterbacks in this one, Dak Prescott holds a 4-2 record against the Eagles, including a 3-2 advantage head-to-head against Carson Wentz (one of those losses was a meaningless 2016 Week 17 game).

In six starts against the Eagles, Prescott has completed 63.6% of his passes, averaging 228 yards per game. He’s thrown seven touchdowns against six interceptions.

Wentz, meanwhile, has posted sterling numbers against Dallas despite a sub-.500 record. In five career starts against the Cowboys, Wentz has completed 67.2% of his passes, averaging 240.6 yards per game to go along with 10 touchdown passes and 0 picks. That’s good for a 100.0 passer rating.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Injury Report

Injuries are a factor in almost every NFL game, but they figure to be a key storyline tonight. While it appeared earlier in the week that the Cowboys would be without as many as five starters for this game, that no longer appears to be the case:

As for the Eagles, well, the news isn’t so good. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Tim Jernigan, left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Nigel Bradham will miss this game, along with key role players such as Darren Sproles, while cornerback Ronald Darby remains questionable. The Eagles will get a boost to their struggling secondary with the return of corner Jalen Mills:

Fresh.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Odds

Here are the current Eagles-Cowboys betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 10:00 a.m. Sunday morning:

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles      +3 (-118)     +125   O 49 (-110)
Cowboys      -3 (+100)     -150   U 49 (-105)

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles     +3 (-103)   +130   O 49 (-110)
Cowboys     -3 (-120)   -148   U 49 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles     +3 (-110)    +144   O 49.5 (-105)
Cowboys      -3 (-110)    -166   U 49.5 (-115)

Win Probability

Let’s check out FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection to see how it stacks up with current legal sportsbook odds.

Why?

ELO and similar projection models aren’t a perfect science, but it’s a worthwhile exercise to evaluate multiple sources for pronounced disparities between the betting odds and projection models in search of potential betting value.

As for tonight’s game, the ELO projection model has the Cowboys favored by 1.5 points and with a 55% win probability. With Dallas currently favored by three points, ELO suggests there is 1.5 points of betting value on the Eagles.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of FOX Bet’s -150 moneyline odds on the Cowboys is 60%, which means that price on Dallas is slightly juiced up when compared to the ELO projection.

As for the Eagles, the implied win probability of their +125 moneyline odds at FOX Bet is 44.4%, meaning their price is basically in line with the ELO projection.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets

We already told you about FOX Bet’s strong promo on the Eagles at +7 (+100) odds tonight, a prop we like because:

  1. It gives bettors four points of added value against the standard market price.
  2. The Eagles typically play well in Dallas.

We also like FOX Bet because of its creative promotions and strong bet boosts, of which there are plenty for this game:

Amari Cooper and Zach Ertz to each 50+ yards receiving

Cooper murdered the Eagles late last season with 10 catches for 217 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been banged up, but it’s hard to imagine that he doesn’t get at least 50 yards if he can stay on the field against an Eagles secondary that allowed 167 yards to Stefon Diggs last week. As for Ertz, he’s had at least 50 yards receiving in each of the Eagles’ first six games.

Dak Prescott to throw for 2+ TD and win (+160)

If you like the Cowboys to win, this is a good way to boost your bet. Prescott has four multi-touchdown games so far this season and is going up an Eagles pass defense that’s allowing more than 280 yards and two passing touchdowns per game through six weeks.

Carson Wentz to throw for 2+ TDs and win (+290)

If you like the Eagles to win, you have to imagine Wentz will find the end zone at least twice tonight. He’s thrown at least one touchdown in all six games thus far and has thrown multiple touchdown passes four times. In five career starts against the Cowboys, Wentz has a 100.0 quarterback rating to go along with 10 touchdowns and just one interception.

Jordan Howard to rush for 75+ yards and win (+425)

The Eagles will be once again be without DeSean Jackson tonight and would benefit greatly from a consistent run game. Howard has only eclipsed the 75-yard mark once this season (87 yards during Week 4 at Green Bay), but has received at least 13 carries in each of the Eagles’ last three games. He’ll be going up against a Dallas defense that has allowed 97.7 rushing yards per game during a three-game losing streak.

Other Eagles vs. Cowboys Bet Boosts

This week’s Colin Cowherd Blazin’ 5 Special at FOX Bet includes a play on the Eagles (+2.5), along with the Rams (-2.5), Colts (-1), Giants (-3), and Ravens (+3). If three of those five picks hit, you win your bet at +100 odds.

SugarHouse Sportsbook, which offers a $250 deposit match for new users, has a few Eagles-specific boosts on Sunday. Users can grab the Eagles, Ravens, and Saints all to win at a +1373 payout, or they can lock in the Eagles and Patriots both to win at +177 odds.

You can also grab Carson Wentz to throw for over 300 yards and the Eagles to win at +345, or Ezekiel Elliott to go over 125+ yards and the Cowboys to win at +400.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Trends

The betting trends shine very favorably upon the Eagles this week.

The Jason Garrett Factor

There are some flat-out UGLY Jason Garrett trends out there this week. Consider the following:

  • The Cowboys are 4-14-1 ATS as a home favorite after a loss under Garrett and 1-7-1 ATS in this spot since the start of the 2014 season.
  • The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS and 3-9 straight up as a home favorite of three points or less under Garrett.
  • The Cowboys are 9-19-2 ATS overall when favored by three points or less in any situation and 3-6 ATS against division opponents under Garrett.
  • The only previous occasion in which Dallas was favored by three points or less at home over the Eagles came back on Thanksgiving Day in 2014. The Eagles routed Dallas by a 33-10 final.

Two Other Trends Favoring Philly

Road underdogs of three points or less in division road games that are coming off a loss are 59-39-7 ATS.

Home favorites of three points or less that are coming off a loss when favored by five points or more are a woeful 0-6-1 ATS.

Be sure to check out our full rundown on how to bet the spread on the Eagles vs. Cowboys game.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Total Trends

It’s also worth considering team-specific, matchup-specific, and more general historical trends. The information I was able to gather strongly pointed to a play on the under. Consider the following trends:

  • The under is 100-76-4 ATS in all division games set at 49 points or more and 36-23-1 ATS when set between 49 and 50 points.
  • After the under cashed in the Chiefs’ 30-6 win over the Broncos on Thursday night, it is now 29-15-1 in division primetime games that close with a total of 49 points or higher and 20-8 in primetime division games that close anywhere from 49-51 points.
  • The under is 19-10-1 in NFC East games when the total is set at 49 points or higher and 12-5-1 when set anywhere from 49-51 points.
  • The under is 7-2 overall in games between the Eagles and Cowboys that has a closing total set at 49 points or higher.
  • The under is 31-22 in all Cowboys games started by Dak Prescott and 11-6 in primetime games, including when it hit three weeks ago in their 12-10 loss in New Orleans.

If you’re not interested in playing the under because, let’s be honest, it’s not much fun—then here’s one for the over. The over is 19-8 in Eagles games since Doug Pederson took over prior to the 2016 season.

Check out our full rundown on how to bet the over/under on the Eagles vs. Cowboys game.

Where’s the Action Going?

The Eagles opened as a three-point underdog. After moving to a 2.5-point underdog by Friday afternoon, the Eagles are now back right where they started at +3, presumably because of the Cowboys’ improving injury report.

As of Sunday morning, 64% of total spread bets and 79% of the spread handle is on the Eagles across reporting markets, while 70% of totals bets and 63% of totals money is on the over.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Prediction

After a perfect 3-0 start, it’s hard to imagine the Cowboys dropping a fourth-straight game, but I think that’s exactly what is going to happen on Sunday night. I felt a lot better about this pick when it appeared Amari Cooper and/or Tyron Smith and La’el Collins could possibly miss the game, but  Dallas has still been beyond awful as a short favorite at home, and you have to wonder about the effectiveness of its key starters returning from injury. Underdogs are 56-35-1 ATS and 11-8 ATS in primetime this season. I expect that the Eagles will keep that trend going with a cover (and win) tonight.

As for the total, the historical trends of division games set at this total is enough to sway me to the under, so that’s going to be my play in this one.

The Pick: Eagles (+3) over Cowboys and Under 49.5 points


Bob Wankel

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